(Originally posted on Shook-isms on 6/5/09)
The 2009 Tony Awards are on Sunday, June 7th at the Radio City Music Hall. One could argue that the competition in many categories is not particularly intense. However, regardless I will take a stab at offering my predictions in some of the larger categories.
1. Best Musical: Billy Elliot will be the walk away winner, not only in this category, but throughout the evening. A strong second place showing will go to Next to Normal, a contemporary musical that opened this spring to strong reviews. Rock of Ages will finish in a distant third (although it looks like a fun show to me). Although nominated for 8 awards, Shrek doesn't stand a chance; if it weren't for the muscle that comes from the movie's success, it would have closed months ago.
2. Best Play: This is a tougher one for me; I have not read as much about any of the production that are nominated. I will pick 33 Variations based on the strength of the play write (Moises Kaufman) and the leading actress (Jane Fonda).
3. Best Revival of a Musical. I believe this race will be between Hair, nominated for 8 Tony's, and West Side Story, nominated for 4 awards. My hope is that West Side Story will win, but my sense is that Hair will take the award. West Side Story has done an admirable job of weaving the Spanish language directly into the script and lyrics, not commonly done on the commercial stage. The reviews were punctuated with energy and emotion. Hair, on the other hand, is nominated for more awards and has received more press. The reviews I've seen are quite good, but they didn't wet my appetite as the WSS reviews did. I should note, the Purdue Theatre Division closed their 2007/2008 season with an outstanding production of Hair. A final thought, my friend Meri Preuss saw both shows in NY this spring and had great things to say about each of them. However, when she described the production of Hair, her face brightened with excitement. I could tell it blew her away. So, I predict Hair will win, but in my heart, I am rooting for WSS (it has always been one of my favorite musicals)
.4. Best Revival of a Play: This is another tough category. One could argue there were enough worthy productions this year to fill the category twice. The drama's that are nominated are difficult to compare and each in their own right achieved strong acclaim in their original productions. I am inclined to go with the Lincoln Center's production of Joe Turner's Come and Gone based on the strength of play write August Wilson and the phenomenal reviews.
So those are my picks. I'm obviously not giving much credit to many of the larger productions, Shrek and 9 to 5 and White Christmas in particular. We'll know on Sunday night how well I do. Thanks for reading.
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